热点思考 | 财政金融协同，助力“开门红”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the coordinated policy signals from various ministries, particularly focusing on stimulating domestic demand, enhancing support for technological innovation, and invigorating private investment as key areas for future policy efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Signals from Ministries - The recent press conferences from the central bank and the Ministry of Finance emphasize the need to tap into domestic demand potential, increase support for technological innovation, and activate private investment [2][8]. - Fiscal policies are being directed to consumer endpoints, with personal consumption loan interest subsidies increasing from 500 yuan to 3000 yuan, and the inclusion of credit card installment payments [2][46]. - The central bank has lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to guide down financing costs [2][46]. Group 2: Addressing Key Issues - The significant decline in new household loans in 2025, with only 360 billion yuan added compared to a decrease of 22,910 billion yuan in 2024, is a primary concern driving the expansion of personal consumption loan interest subsidies [3][48]. - Fixed asset investment fell by 3.8% in 2025, with equipment purchases being a major driver, showing an 11.8% increase, indicating the need for additional policy support to stabilize investment [4][48]. Group 3: Potential Effects of Current Policies - The fiscal interest subsidies are expected to stabilize financial data and stimulate domestic demand, despite commercial banks facing challenges in loan growth and high loan write-offs averaging 122.6 billion yuan per month in 2025 [4][26]. - The expansion of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy range is anticipated to support stable consumer spending, particularly in service consumption, as the demand shifts towards services [6][50]. - The dual benefits of equipment updates and new policy financial tools are likely to strengthen the support for new infrastructure investments, with significant increases in investment proportions in core areas like electricity, internet software, and logistics [6][36].