中金 • 部院联合 | “反内卷”的绿色含义

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the interplay between "anti-involution" and green transformation in China, emphasizing that while "anti-involution" may temporarily lower clean energy prices, it could ultimately hinder long-term innovation and cost reduction in clean energy sectors [2][5]. Group 1: Impact of Involution on Green Transformation - "Involution" in competition negatively affects green transformation by leading to low-quality, low-profit environments that reduce R&D investments, ultimately delaying the cost reduction of clean energy [2][20]. - The annual average growth rate of carbon emissions increased from 1.3% during the 13th Five-Year Plan to 3% during the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating challenges in achieving carbon peak goals [7]. - The competition intensity in industries such as photovoltaics and cement is high, leading to declining revenue and profit growth, which further exacerbates the issue of overcapacity [9][20]. Group 2: Quantitative Analysis of Anti-Involution - Under ideal conditions, "anti-involution" could reduce the green premium by 8-11 percentage points, with coal prices expected to rise by approximately 23%, increasing coal power costs by about 16% [3][28][31]. - The estimated carbon reduction from "anti-involution" could reach approximately 100 million tons by 2025, accounting for about 0.85% of total carbon emissions, through improved energy efficiency and reduced production in high-carbon industries [4][48]. - The article highlights that the reduction in fixed asset investment could lead to a maximum carbon reduction of 5.5 million tons, emphasizing the importance of controlling inefficient investments [45][48]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations for Synergy - To better leverage the synergy between "anti-involution" and green transformation, policies should focus on enhancing green standards, eliminating outdated capacities, and promoting green consumption [5][49]. - The article suggests that effective implementation of energy efficiency standards and technological innovation is crucial for achieving the desired outcomes of "anti-involution" [37][49]. - The framework of "policy strength-execution challenge" is proposed to assess the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures across different industries, indicating that stronger policies with fewer execution challenges yield better results [49].