深度专题 | 美国通胀风险有多大？——2026年美国通胀展望（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core inflation effect of tariffs in the U.S. has been systematically lower than expected since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" [1][6] - As of October 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. is 12.4%, which is below the theoretical rate of 15.7% [2][44] - The inflation effect of tariffs is not immediate but follows a stepwise transmission path, with recent months showing stagnation in tariff transmission progress [1][37] Group 2 - By September 2025, exporters, importers, and consumers bear 6%, 37%, and 57% of the tariff costs respectively, indicating that consumers are increasingly absorbing these costs [3][90] - The initial burden of tariffs was primarily on businesses due to high uncertainty in tariff policies and weakening domestic demand [3][108] - The "excess imports" accumulated by U.S. businesses have delayed price increases, with a significant shift expected in Q4 2025 and into 2026 [3][90] Group 3 - Inflation in the U.S. is expected to exhibit a "high first, low later" characteristic in 2026, with potential risks from both upward and downward pressures [4][6] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely linked to inflation risks, with expectations of a pause in rate cuts in the first half of 2026 [4][6] - The transmission rate of tariffs could significantly influence inflation, with predictions for core PCE inflation at 2.8%, 2.6%, and 2.5% depending on the transmission rate [4][6]