丹麦向全球市场投下深水炸弹

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions surrounding the U.S. and Denmark, particularly regarding Greenland, have led to significant financial decisions by Danish and Swedish pension funds, indicating a shift in investment strategies away from U.S. debt due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and policy risks [3][4][5]. Group 1: Danish Pension Fund Actions - Akademiker Pension, Denmark's largest pension fund, announced the liquidation of approximately $100 million in U.S. Treasury holdings, influenced by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline [3][4]. - The Chief Investment Officer of Akademiker Pension acknowledged that while the decision was based on long-term credit analysis, the current geopolitical climate made the decision easier [3]. Group 2: Broader European Trends - Following Denmark, Sweden's largest pension fund, Alecta, reportedly sold off the majority of its U.S. Treasury holdings, amounting to approximately $7.7 billion to $8.8 billion, citing increased policy risks and unpredictability in the U.S. [5]. - The Peter G. Peterson Foundation reported that the U.S. federal government is projected to add approximately $2.25 trillion in new debt over a 12-month period starting January 2025, highlighting concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [5]. Group 3: Global Investment Sentiment - The total foreign holdings of U.S. securities have surpassed $30.9 trillion, with European investors holding about $8 trillion, indicating a significant reliance on U.S. debt [6]. - Deutsche Bank's research suggests that if Europe decides to "weaponize" capital, it could escalate tensions beyond tariffs to direct impacts on U.S. debt markets, posing risks to both U.S. and European economies [7]. Group 4: China's Strategic Shift - China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries have decreased to $682.6 billion, the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting a strategic shift away from U.S. debt due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and the need for diversification [8]. - Concurrently, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 74.15 million ounces, indicating a move towards asset diversification and a potential strategy for internationalizing the yuan [8]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The decision by Danish pension funds to sell U.S. debt is seen as a symbolic move that could trigger broader market reactions, with investors increasingly wary of U.S. assets [9]. - The ongoing geopolitical and financial risks are expected to intensify as the U.S. midterm elections approach, potentially reshaping global capital flows and investment strategies [7][9].