光大证券研究·2026-01-21 23:07Core Insights - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, while the average transaction price per square meter increased by 3.4% [4] - The top three companies in terms of newly added land reserve value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [5] - The core 30 cities accounted for 43% of the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities and 72% of the total transaction value [7] Summary by Sections Residential Land Transactions - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities was 320 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%. The average transaction price was CNY 5,605 per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4] - For first-tier cities, the supply of residential land was 10.77 million square meters, down 31.2% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 9.66 million square meters, down 29.3% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 35,203 per square meter, up 18.6% year-on-year [4] - In second-tier cities, the supply was 149 million square meters, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 125 million square meters, down 1.0% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 6,420 per square meter, up 3.2% year-on-year [4] - In third-tier cities, the supply was 215 million square meters, down 24.9% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 185 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 3,509 per square meter, down 1.6% year-on-year [4] New Land Reserves - The companies with the largest newly added land reserves in terms of value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [5] - The companies with the largest newly added land reserves in terms of area were China Overseas Land & Investment (5.11 million square meters), Poly Developments (4.56 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.32 million square meters) [5] Core 30 Cities Performance - In December 2025, the core 30 cities saw 558 land transactions, with a total area of 39.32 million square meters, down 16.4% year-on-year, and a total transaction value of CNY 231.8 billion, down 32.5% year-on-year [6] - For the entire year of 2025, the core 30 cities had 1,970 land transactions, with a total area of 137 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, and a total transaction value of CNY 1.29 trillion, down 2.8% year-on-year [6] - The average transaction price in the core 30 cities was CNY 9,404 per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [6] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in the core 30 cities was 8.1%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [6]