半导体行业观察·2026-01-22 04:05Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has become TSMC's largest customer, surpassing Apple, which previously held this position for many years [1][3][5]. Group 1: Nvidia's Rise - Nvidia's revenue has surged due to the booming demand for AI GPUs, with enterprise clients willing to spend billions on these processors [2][5]. - Nvidia's sales are projected to grow by 62% by January 2026, while Apple's product revenue is expected to grow only by 3.6% by December 2025 [5][7]. - The demand for high-performance chips driven by AI is significantly outpacing the growth of smartphone sales, which have plateaued [7][8]. Group 2: Apple's Challenges - Apple is facing increased chip prices from TSMC and may no longer have priority production rights, which could hinder its competitiveness [2][3]. - Apple's revenue growth rate has slowed to single digits, contrasting sharply with Nvidia's rapid growth [7][8]. - The competition for TSMC's capacity has intensified, with Nvidia and AMD taking up more space on the production lines, making it harder for Apple to secure its needs [3][11]. Group 3: TSMC's Performance - TSMC reported a 36% revenue growth, reaching $122 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% in the last quarter [5][8]. - The sales of high-performance computing chips, including AI chips, grew by 48%, while smartphone revenue only increased by 11% [7][8]. - TSMC's capital expenditures are expected to rise significantly, indicating a strong investment in future technologies [7][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The shift in customer dynamics at TSMC reflects broader industry trends, with AI driving demand for advanced chips while smartphone growth stagnates [7][15]. - Nvidia's business model allows for high margins, but it faces risks related to inventory surplus, while TSMC must balance capacity expansion with market demand [18][19]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a transformation, with Nvidia's influence growing at the expense of traditional players like Apple [19][20].