产能大潮退去，2026年这几个化工品为何能脱颖而出？

Group 1: Methanol Market Analysis - Methanol's price is significantly influenced by its production capacity and the dynamics of its upstream and downstream industries. In 2026, over 7 million tons of methanol capacity is expected to be put into operation, but most of this capacity is tied to downstream facilities, limiting market circulation [1] - The coastal supply-demand situation is crucial for methanol futures, with potential disruptions from geopolitical events like the situation in Iran and domestic maintenance affecting supply [2] Group 2: Urea Market Insights - Urea production capacity is projected to continue growing, with over 5 million tons expected to be added in 2026. However, the demand from agriculture remains stable while industrial demand faces risks of decline, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [5] - Urea prices are heavily influenced by government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and prices, with export restrictions likely to cap price increases [6] Group 3: Benzene and Styrene Overview - In 2026, the production capacity for benzene is expected to remain stable, with no significant increase in imports anticipated, leading to a gradual reduction in bearish pressure on the market [8] - Styrene's production capacity is expected to lag behind downstream demand, with only one new 700,000-ton facility planned for 2026, while exports are becoming a significant growth point for styrene [9][12] Group 4: PX-PTA Market Dynamics - PX and PTA are expected to see limited new capacity in 2026, with PX's production capacity increasing by only 4.6% and PTA having no new capacity. This creates a supply-demand gap as downstream polyester production continues to expand [16][17] - The price performance of PX and PTA has been strong, but their high valuations may limit further upside without support from crude oil prices [17] Group 5: Plastic Production Trends - The production capacity for LLDPE and other plastic grades is expected to decline significantly in 2026, particularly in the first half of the year, despite previous overcapacity [21][22] - The profitability of plastic production is under pressure due to overcapacity, with prices closely correlated to crude oil prices, suggesting limited downside potential for both [24] Group 6: Synthetic Rubber Market Outlook - Synthetic rubber, particularly polybutadiene rubber, is expected to be a strong performer in 2026 due to a supply-demand imbalance, with no new capacity planned and high utilization rates [30][32] - The supply of butadiene is also constrained, with no new capacity expected in the first half of 2026, leading to potential price volatility [31]