阿里巴巴连涨两日，但成交额大幅萎缩

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock has shown volatility with a recent rebound, but trading volume has significantly decreased, indicating a lack of follow-up investment in the short term while maintaining confidence in its fundamentals due to substantial investments in artificial intelligence [3][6]. Trading Volume Analysis - On January 22, Alibaba's stock rose by 0.43% to HKD 163.9, with a trading volume of only HKD 5.4 billion, potentially dropping below HKD 10 billion for the day, compared to over HKD 40 billion on January 14 [3][4]. - The trading volume decline is attributed to insufficient follow-up funds and a general decrease in trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market [3][6]. AI Developments - As of January 21, Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen derivative models surpassed 200,000, making it the first open-source large model to achieve this milestone globally, with a cumulative download exceeding 1 billion times [5]. - The AI product launch on January 14 led to a significant stock price increase of 5.69% and a trading volume close to HKD 40.8 billion, but the subsequent week saw a 75% drop in trading volume [5][6]. Revenue Growth Projections - Dongwu Securities forecasts that Alibaba's revenue for Q3 of FY2026 (ending December 31, 2025) will reach CNY 292.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, primarily impacted by a slowdown in e-commerce growth [8]. - The adjusted EBITA for the same quarter is expected to be CNY 30.611 billion, with an EBITA margin of 10.5% [8]. E-commerce and Cloud Business Insights - The e-commerce segment is anticipated to face pressure due to weakened macro demand and high base effects, with customer management revenue growth expected to decline to 3% [9]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue for the quarter is projected to be CNY 42.852 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase, with a stable EBITA margin around 9% [9]. Long-term Outlook - If Alibaba's AI assistant products achieve technological and user acceptance milestones, the company is positioned to capture a significant share of the new internet traffic entry points [9][10]. - The company’s ecosystem, which includes various applications without reliance on third parties, provides a natural advantage in maintaining stable traffic [10].