大摩眼中的DeepSeek：以存代算、以少胜多！

Core Viewpoint - DeepSeek is redefining the AI scaling paradigm by emphasizing a "doing more with less" philosophy, where the next generation of AI success relies on efficient hybrid architectures rather than merely stacking more GPUs [2][3][4]. Group 1: Engram Module and Conditional Memory - DeepSeek's innovative Engram module separates storage from computation, significantly reducing the need for expensive high-bandwidth memory (HBM) by utilizing cost-effective DRAM for complex reasoning tasks [3][9]. - The introduction of "Conditional Memory" allows for efficient retrieval of static knowledge stored in DRAM, enhancing the performance of large language models (LLMs) without overloading HBM [9][12]. Group 2: Economic Impact on Infrastructure - The Engram architecture reshapes the hardware cost structure by minimizing reliance on HBM, suggesting a shift in infrastructure costs from GPUs to more affordable memory solutions [12][13]. - The analysis indicates that a 100 billion parameter Engram model would require approximately 200GB of system DRAM, highlighting a 13% increase in the use of commodity DRAM per system [12][13]. Group 3: Innovation Driven by Constraints - Despite limitations in advanced computing power and hardware access, Chinese AI models have rapidly closed the performance gap with global leaders, demonstrating a shift towards algorithmic efficiency and practical system design [17][18]. - This phenomenon is termed "constraint-induced innovation," indicating that future AI advancements may stem from innovative thinking under resource constraints rather than merely increasing hardware capabilities [17][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Predictions for DeepSeek's next-generation model V4 suggest significant advancements in coding and reasoning capabilities, with the potential to run on consumer-grade hardware, thereby lowering the marginal costs of high-level AI inference [20][21]. - The report emphasizes optimism regarding the localization of memory and semiconductor equipment in China, as the decoupling of memory from computation is expected to lead to smarter and more efficient LLMs [21].