徐奇渊：展望2026年中国经济的三个角度

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" in shaping China's economic development, focusing on high-quality growth and the well-being of the population [4][7] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights two main pushes: achieving effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, and promoting comprehensive human development and common prosperity for all [4][7] - The article outlines four key aspects of human-centered development in the "15th Five-Year Plan," including investing in human capital, aligning industry development with evolving consumer needs, urbanization as a means of optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing living standards to achieve common prosperity [5][6][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the integration of stock and incremental policies, emphasizing the need for a more proactive macroeconomic policy in 2026, which includes evaluating the consistency of various economic and non-economic policies [8][11] - It highlights the significant potential of existing fiscal deposits, which have fluctuated between -200 billion and +600 billion annually over the past two decades, with a notable increase in 2025, indicating underutilization of fiscal resources [9] - The article also points out the substantial policy space within state-owned assets, with total assets exceeding 400 trillion and liabilities around 260 trillion, suggesting that liquidity issues need to be addressed to activate these assets effectively [10] Group 3 - The article provides an analysis of the expected trend of the RMB exchange rate in 2026, with a general consensus on appreciation, but notes that this must be accompanied by policies to expand domestic demand [13][15] - It discusses the impact of geopolitical factors, particularly Sino-U.S. relations, on the undervaluation of the RMB, indicating that improving these relations could lead to a correction in the exchange rate [14][15] - The article concludes that the current exchange rate is primarily determined by market supply and demand, with geopolitical influences playing a significant role, and anticipates a favorable environment for RMB appreciation in 2026 [15]