乙二醇强势反弹，后市怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in ethylene glycol prices, driven by increased maintenance of overseas facilities and expectations of reduced imports due to weather conditions in North America [3][7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of January 22, ethylene glycol futures saw a significant increase of 166 yuan to 3847 yuan/ton, marking a 4.5% rise [3]. - The supply-demand balance indicates that domestic production remains high, with an operating rate of 73.43% for ethylene glycol and 79.4% for synthetic gas as of January 22 [8]. - Despite the seasonal decline in demand due to the upcoming Spring Festival, the overall supply is expected to remain substantial, leading to an estimated inventory pressure of 40-50 thousand tons in January and February [10][11]. Maintenance and Production Updates - Several overseas facilities are undergoing maintenance, including two plants in Taiwan and multiple facilities in Saudi Arabia, which are expected to impact import levels positively [5][6][7]. - The maintenance schedules include significant capacity reductions, with Saudi Arabia's Sharq plant (45,000 tons) and others scheduled for repairs, potentially affecting market supply [6][7]. Price Outlook - Ethylene glycol prices are currently at historical low valuation levels, with expectations of limited downside due to improved import conditions and seasonal demand recovery anticipated in March [12]. - The article suggests that while short-term price fluctuations may continue, a rebound in prices is likely as domestic production enters a brief vacuum and demand increases in the first half of the year [12].