读懂“十五五”：国盛证券首席经济学家熊园带你解码政策的底层逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is seen as a pivotal moment in China's economic history, marking a shift from "scale dividends" to a focus on "system safety and quality revolution" as the country enters the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4]. Historical Context - Each five-year plan has historically been associated with a restructuring of wealth logic, with significant changes occurring every five years: - "15th" period (2001-2005): Entry into WTO, urbanization, infrastructure, real estate, and foreign trade became wealth drivers [1]. - "11th" period (2006-2010): High-speed growth driven by the "4 trillion" stimulus, leading to peaks in finance, real estate, and heavy industry [2]. - "12th" period (2011-2015): Transition pains with the rise of "strategic emerging industries" like Internet+, mobile payments, and consumption upgrades [3]. - "13th" period (2016-2020): Supply-side reforms and "de-leveraging" reshaped the industrial landscape [4]. - "14th" period (2021-2025): Shift from "efficiency first" to "safety first" with a focus on carbon neutrality and semiconductor self-sufficiency [4]. Challenges Ahead - The old economic models are failing as new factors emerge, such as aging population and unprecedented monetary policy shifts, making traditional metrics like GDP growth less relevant [4][5]. - Investors face a "logic gap," struggling to translate policy intentions into actionable liquidity support and asset allocation strategies [5]. Upcoming Opportunities - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" presents complex challenges for macroeconomic policy, with a need for new frameworks to navigate the evolving landscape [5]. - The course led by economist Xiong Yuan aims to decode the "15th Five-Year Plan" and identify investment opportunities within the A-share market, focusing on core assets and understanding the implications of policy changes [6][19]. Course Insights - The course will cover: - Understanding policy frameworks and their implications for capital markets [19]. - Identifying investment opportunities within the "15th Five-Year Plan" [19]. - Analyzing the evolution of China's monetary and fiscal policies [19]. - Bridging the gap between policy interpretation and practical investment applications [19]. Conclusion - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is not just a distant concept but a critical framework that investors must engage with to navigate the next five years effectively, emphasizing the importance of understanding policy nuances and market signals [19].