国泰海通 · 晨报260123｜交运：春运预售开始启动，预计需求保持旺盛

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the robust demand for air travel during the Spring Festival travel season, with expectations for continued strong demand in 2026 [5] - It highlights a structural change in demand within the Chinese aviation market, indicating a shift towards private travel while business travel remains below pre-pandemic levels [3] Group 1: 2025 Aviation Demand and Supply - By 2025, China's civil aviation passenger traffic is projected to grow by 5-6% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 17% compared to 2019 [3] - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high, while ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with estimates suggesting domestic ticket prices will be lower in 2025 than in 2024 and 2019 [3] - The aviation supply is entering a low-growth phase, with ongoing structural changes in demand affecting profitability [3] Group 2: 2025 Spring Festival Travel Review - During the 2025 Spring Festival travel period, over 9 billion people are expected to travel, marking a 7% increase year-on-year [4] - Air travel is estimated to grow by 7% year-on-year, with domestic air travel increasing by 4-5% and international travel seeing nearly a 30% rise [4] - Domestic ticket prices are projected to decrease by nearly 10% year-on-year, influenced by high base numbers and increased high-speed rail services [4] Group 3: 2026 Spring Festival Outlook - The 2026 Spring Festival travel period is anticipated to maintain strong demand, with significant increases in ticket sales observed during the pre-sale phase [5] - The article notes that the peak travel days will likely occur before and after the holiday, with high load factors and market-driven ticket pricing benefiting airline revenue management [5] - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-driven pricing and structural recovery in demand, suggesting a positive outlook for profitability [5]