中金2026年展望 | 博彩：关注卫星娱乐场关闭后市场份额的变化

Core Viewpoint - The Macau gaming industry is expected to see a total gaming revenue growth of 6% year-on-year in 2026, recovering to 90% of 2019 levels, driven primarily by the robust growth of the mass market segment, while the VIP segment is anticipated to remain under pressure with a projected decline of 6% year-on-year [1][2][4]. Revenue Projections - Total gaming revenue in Macau is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year in 2026, reaching 90% of 2019 levels, mainly due to the steady growth of the mass market segment [2][4]. - Mass market gaming revenue, including slot machines, is expected to increase by 7% year-on-year, recovering to 117% of 2019 levels [2][5]. - VIP gaming revenue is forecasted to decline by 6% year-on-year, only recovering to 30% of 2019 levels, influenced by high win rates in 2025 and conservative credit policies from operators [5][21]. EBITDA and Profitability - The EBITDA margin for the gaming sector is expected to improve by 6% to 24.9% in 2026, primarily due to the closure of satellite casinos, which will enhance profitability, although competition in the Macau Peninsula may slightly impact margins [1][24]. - The closure of satellite casinos is anticipated to lead to a marginal improvement in the overall industry EBITDA margin, with a projected increase from 23.6% in 2025 to 24.9% in 2026 [24][36]. Market Dynamics - The closure of satellite casinos is expected to reshape the competitive landscape in the Macau Peninsula, as the demand from former satellite casino customers will still exist, potentially benefiting nearby casinos [10][21]. - The mass market segment is likely to continue driving the industry, supported by diversified entertainment activities, favorable exchange rates, and a strong global capital market enhancing overseas demand [1][24]. Visitor Trends and Demand - Macau has transformed into an "activity city," hosting various large-scale entertainment events, which is expected to attract more visitors and enhance gaming demand [24][25]. - The number of overseas visitors to Macau is projected to continue increasing, driven by the wealth effect from rising capital markets in neighboring regions [26]. Regulatory Environment - The increase in royalty fees by operators, such as MGM China, may lead to concerns among investors regarding potential similar adjustments across the industry, which could pressure valuations [28][29]. - The Macau government may intervene in the industry, potentially affecting dividend distributions and operational efficiency, although these proposals have not been finalized in the latest gaming law [31][39]. Valuation Adjustments - The valuation basis for the gaming sector has been adjusted from EV/Adjusted EBITDA to EV/EBITDA to more accurately reflect operational performance amid changing royalty rates [39][34]. - The current valuation corresponds to a multiple of 9 times the expected EV/EBITDA for 2026, which is below the pre-pandemic average of 14 times [39].