【宏观】美国政府停摆：阴影逐步消散——解构美国系列第十七篇（赵格格/周欣平）

Core Viewpoint - The risk of a government shutdown in the upcoming budget deadline on January 30 is considered lower than in 2025, with ongoing support for the U.S. economy in the first quarter [4][5] Group 1: Budget and Government Operations - Bipartisan efforts have led to a "stair-step" approach in pushing for government department budgets, with three departments having their fiscal allocations approved for 2026, while nine departments have funding sufficient only until January 30, 2026 [4] - As of January 20, preliminary agreements have been reached on budgets for six departments, which account for 22.4% of the fiscal expenditures for 2025, indicating that even if a shutdown occurs, its impact will be less severe than in 2025 [4] Group 2: Political Dynamics - With midterm elections approaching, both Democratic and Republican parties recognize that a government shutdown would negatively affect constituents' lives and their electoral prospects [4] - Disagreements over Biden's enhanced healthcare subsidies remain unresolved, but previous pressure from Trump on pharmaceutical companies to lower prices has alleviated the urgency of the healthcare debate, reducing the likelihood of a hard political standoff [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Trump administration is expected to focus more on foreign issues, which may lead to a stable domestic policy environment and a resolution to the government shutdown, thereby maintaining economic stability [5] - If bipartisan agreement on fiscal allocations is achieved, the U.S. economy may see a quarter-on-quarter rebound, which could delay interest rate cuts and support short-term earnings for U.S. stocks [5]