汽车商业评论·2026-01-22 23:07Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of the Chinese automotive industry as it faces declining domestic sales and increasing pressure to transition towards higher-value and technology-intensive vehicles. The focus is on the 2026 sales targets set by various automakers amidst a backdrop of changing government policies and market dynamics [3][6][8]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, China's automotive production and sales reached 34.4 million units, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, maintaining its position as the world's largest market for the 17th consecutive year [3]. - Domestic sales, excluding exports, were 27.3 million units, up 6.7%, with passenger vehicles accounting for approximately 24.1 million units, growing by 8.0% [5]. - However, December 2025 saw a significant decline in domestic sales, with only 2.519 million units sold, marking a 6.7% month-on-month drop and a 15.6% year-on-year decrease [5]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The average profit margin in the Chinese automotive industry has fallen to 4.4%, only slightly above the historical low of 4.3% in 2024, indicating extremely thin profit margins [6]. - The new vehicle replacement subsidy policy, shifting from fixed subsidies to percentage-based subsidies, targets higher-priced vehicles, which may pressure companies that rely heavily on low-cost models [8]. Group 3: Sales Targets and Strategies - Major automakers have set ambitious sales targets for 2026, with a combined goal of approximately 35 to 36 million passenger vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12% to 15% [5]. - Traditional automakers are focusing on stability and efficiency improvements, while new entrants are experiencing significant divergence in their growth strategies [10][30]. - For instance, Changan aims for a total sales target of 3.3 million units in 2026, with a strong emphasis on new energy vehicles, projecting 1.43 million units from this segment [12][15]. Group 4: New Energy Vehicle Focus - The article highlights the increasing importance of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the sales strategies of various automakers, with companies like Dongfeng targeting 1.7 million NEVs in 2026, representing a significant portion of their overall sales goals [15][26]. - Geely plans to launch over ten new models in 2026, focusing on a comprehensive product matrix to drive sales growth [23]. Group 5: Export Market Dynamics - The export market for Chinese vehicles is thriving, with exports reaching 7 million units in 2025, a 21% increase year-on-year, and NEV exports doubling to 2.6 million units [49]. - Automakers are increasingly prioritizing overseas markets, with many setting aggressive export targets that significantly exceed their overall sales growth targets [51][54]. - For example, Changan's overseas sales target for 2026 is set at 750,000 units, accounting for nearly a quarter of its total sales goal [52].