中国另一张王牌

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's dominant position in the global pharmaceutical supply chain, particularly in the production of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and Key Starting Materials (KSMs), which poses a significant asymmetric threat to U.S. national security [3][4][10]. Group 1: China's Dominance in Pharmaceutical Supply Chain - China holds a near-monopoly in several key areas of pharmaceutical production, including over 90% of global antibiotic intermediates and 70%-80% of vitamin production capacity [13][10]. - The U.S. and Europe dominate patented and biological drugs, while India is known as the "world's pharmacy" for its large-scale production of generic drugs, but it relies heavily on China for approximately 70% of its active ingredients and intermediates [10][22]. - The integration of China's chemical industry has created significant cost advantages, with production costs being 30%-40% lower than those in Europe and the U.S., and even 20% lower than in India [15][18]. Group 2: Implications of Supply Chain Dependency - The U.S. faces a critical dependency on Chinese pharmaceutical supplies, which could lead to severe shortages in essential medications, as highlighted by potential disruptions in supply chains due to geopolitical tensions [4][6]. - The FDA's reports indicate ongoing drug shortages in the U.S., exacerbated by the complex and often misleading nature of pharmaceutical supply chains, where active ingredients may originate from various countries, including China [6][7]. - The article warns that the "asymmetric interdependence" between the U.S. and China in the pharmaceutical sector could lead to significant vulnerabilities for the U.S. healthcare system [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - As the U.S. pushes for decoupling from China, the article suggests that rebuilding a lost industrial base in pharmaceuticals will be a long and challenging process, requiring a new generation of skilled engineers and a cultural shift towards accepting chemical manufacturing [29][30]. - The article posits that while China currently holds a strategic advantage, it must remain vigilant against emerging technologies in biomanufacturing that could disrupt its dominance [30]. - The future of the pharmaceutical industry will hinge on balancing efficiency and safety, with the ability to provide lower-cost, safer drugs being a key competitive factor [31].