数字拆解“开门红”：增量资金从何而来？

Group 1 - The capital market has started 2026 with a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking last year's high and daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, driven by liquidity and low interest rates [1] - Insurance funds have increased their allocation to stocks and funds, with the proportion rising from 12% in 2022 to approximately 15% by the end of Q3 2025, indicating a significant upward trend [3] - It is estimated that insurance funds will inject between 300 billion to 700 billion yuan into A-shares throughout 2026 [3] Group 2 - The amount of maturing three-year fixed deposits is expected to reach nearly 28 trillion yuan in 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 5 trillion yuan, with over half maturing in the first quarter [6][7] - The continuous decline in deposit rates, from 2.6% to 1.25%, is likely to drive funds from low-yield deposits into higher-yield "fixed income+" products, indirectly injecting liquidity into A-shares [7] Group 3 - In 2025, the median annual return for actively managed equity funds and stock ETFs exceeded 25%, indicating a significant recovery in the equity market's profitability [9][11] - The positive return environment has increased investors' willingness to allocate to stocks, funds, and trusts, as reflected in a multi-quarter rise in investment sentiment among urban savers [11] Group 4 - The scale of private securities investment funds grew from 5.21 trillion yuan to 7.04 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a growth rate of over 35%, driven by high-net-worth individuals' demand for equity market exposure [17] - The sentiment indicator for active private funds showed a recovery entering 2026, suggesting renewed capital inflow into the stock market [19] Group 5 - The current financing balance has reached 2.71 trillion yuan, a historical high, but the growth of leveraged funds is providing liquidity support rather than amplifying market volatility [22][23] - The proportion of foreign investors expressing concerns about structural valuation risks in the Chinese stock market has dropped to a new low of 38%, indicating a potential for increased foreign capital allocation [26][29]