国泰海通｜策略：价值也会有春天——“着力稳定房地产”政策点评

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the real estate sector is crucial for stabilizing the national economy, boosting domestic demand, reducing asset shrinkage, and enhancing expectations. After years of industry decline and valuation contraction, significant policy turning points are expected to emerge, creating investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Sections Transformation Bull Market - The current "transformation bull market" in China's stock market is driven by three key factors: the decline of risk-free returns, capital market reforms, and economic structural transformation. The reduction of uncertainty in economic and social development makes it essential to grasp investment clues. Traditional industries are transitioning from an L-shaped decline to a horizontal recovery, while new technology industries are entering an innovation expansion cycle. The revaluation of the Chinese market in 2026 presents opportunities in both technology and non-technology sectors [4]. Real Estate Industry Adjustment - The Chinese real estate industry has undergone a prolonged downturn and is now in a phase of bottoming out. As of Q4 2025, residential investment accounted for 4.5% of GDP, down 5.6% from the peak in 2020. By the end of 2025, real estate sales area is expected to decline by 51% compared to the peak in 2021, with price drops in first, second, and third-tier cities reaching 22%, 30%, and 30% respectively. The industry has seen significant capital expenditure reductions, with related sectors' investments falling below the 30th percentile over the past decade. Recent policy shifts indicate a more positive stance towards real estate, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery [5]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Unlike previous real estate cycles driven by urbanization and infrastructure, the current market dynamics are closely tied to policy expectations. Since 2022, the real estate sector has experienced three rounds of systematic market movements influenced by policy changes. The recent emphasis on "de-stocking" and urban renewal by the central government signals a critical shift in policy direction, which may lead to further support for value stocks in the sector [6]. Investment Opportunities - The clear signals for stabilizing the real estate market suggest potential valuation recovery opportunities within the real estate chain. Recommendations include high-quality real estate companies with a price-to-book ratio (PB) below 1. The acceleration of urban renewal projects, combined with ongoing industry clearing, is expected to improve competitive dynamics in related sectors such as building materials, chemicals, steel, and home appliances. The push for high-quality urban renewal is anticipated to stimulate demand in construction and infrastructure sectors [7].