光伏周价格 | 上游累库承压下行，下游成本支撑回暖

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in the photovoltaic industry, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and the impact of external factors such as export tax policies on market conditions. Group 1: Polysilicon - Supply side: Industry inventory has exceeded 510,000 tons and continues to accumulate, leading to increased operational pressure on polysilicon companies due to high inventory levels [4] - Demand side: The downstream silicon wafer segment has initiated a price reduction, which is pressuring upstream polysilicon prices as the demand for high-priced polysilicon decreases [5] - Price trend: Market prices are declining, with some polysilicon prices touching the 53-54 RMB/kg range, indicating a risk of further price declines due to supply and demand pressures [6] Group 2: Silicon Wafers - Supply side: The silicon wafer industry inventory has surpassed 22 GW and continues to accumulate, with a clear market differentiation where leading companies aim to maintain prices while second and third-tier manufacturers are forced to lower prices [7] - Demand side: The reduction in production in the downstream battery segment is significantly greater than in the silicon wafer segment, exacerbating the mismatch in supply and demand [8] - Price trend: Prices for second and third-tier manufacturers have dropped to 1.25 RMB/W for 183N, 1.35 RMB/W for 210RN, and 1.55 RMB/W for 210N, with risks of further declines due to inventory pressures and weak downstream demand [9] Group 3: Battery Cells - Supply side: Battery inventory remains stable at around 6-8 days, with significant supply contraction as manufacturers reduce production, alleviating inventory pressure [10] - Demand side: The implementation of export tax rebates has led to a temporary surge in overseas market demand, supporting price increases [11] - Price trend: Despite rising silver prices increasing non-silicon costs, major manufacturers' transaction prices have risen to 0.41-0.43 RMB/W, with expectations of passive price increases due to cost pressures and improved supply-demand dynamics [11] Group 4: Photovoltaic Modules - Supply side: Increased shipment volumes have led to a rapid decrease in module inventory, with leading companies raising prices due to low inventory levels [12] - Demand side: There is a notable "internal weakness and external strength" market differentiation, with domestic demand remaining weak while overseas orders surge due to export tax policies [13] - Price trend: Spot prices have increased, with major manufacturers' transaction prices generally rising to 0.8-0.85 RMB/W, supported by rapid inventory depletion and strong external demand [14]