合成橡胶强势涨停，核心驱动是什么？接下来怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in synthetic rubber prices is driven by a combination of tight supply of raw materials, improved demand from the tire industry, and positive market sentiment [4][5][10]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply of butadiene, a key raw material for synthetic rubber, has been constrained due to maintenance of production facilities and recent exports to countries like South Korea, leading to a significant drop in port inventories [4]. - Domestic production of synthetic rubber has also seen a decline, with a notable reduction in output reported for December 2025, despite a large annual capacity of 3.8 million tons [4][6]. - As of mid-January, the operating rate for domestic synthetic rubber facilities was 79.68%, showing a slight increase, but overall supply remains tight [6]. Demand Side Analysis - The tire industry, the largest consumer of synthetic rubber, has seen a recovery in orders, particularly for semi-steel tires, following the EU's cancellation of anti-dumping measures against Chinese passenger car tires [5][6]. - The operating rates for tire manufacturers have improved, with semi-steel tire utilization at 72.53% and full-steel tire utilization at 63.02%, although this is expected to decline as the Chinese New Year approaches [6]. Inventory and Cost Analysis - Inventory levels for synthetic rubber have been rising, with some warehouses reporting stock levels exceeding 10,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 9.49% for factory inventories [6]. - The cost of butadiene has risen sharply, impacting the profitability of synthetic rubber production, with theoretical profits for styrene-butadiene rubber significantly reduced [6][10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment is positive, with increased investment in the chemical sector and a strong performance in synthetic rubber prices driven by the tight supply of butadiene [12][14]. - Analysts expect that the price of synthetic rubber will continue to be supported by the strong fundamentals of butadiene, despite potential seasonal demand declines as the Chinese New Year approaches [11][13].