Nvidia(US:NVDA) 创业邦·2026-01-23 10:15Core Viewpoint - Musk's assertion that "China will be the biggest winner in AI competition" is based on the premise that electricity is the bottleneck for AI development, and China possesses the largest power infrastructure globally, which will enable it to surpass other regions in AI computing power [6]. Group 1: AI Competition Landscape - The AI competition has shifted from a focus on chips to the entire industrial infrastructure, revealing electricity shortages as a critical issue [8]. - From 2023 to 2025, the AI arms race centers around chip capabilities, particularly Nvidia's GPU architecture, which has seen limited power improvements [10]. - Despite advancements in domestic chip production, challenges such as ecological constraints and high-end equipment embargoes hinder progress, resulting in major AI firms like ByteDance and Alibaba not meeting their capital expenditure plans for AI [10]. Group 2: Electricity as a Bottleneck - By mid-2025, the focus of AI infrastructure development will pivot to electricity, as the power demands of AI systems outpace chip advancements [11]. - China has a total installed power capacity of 3.8 billion kilowatts, with projected electricity consumption of approximately 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, indicating a significant surplus even if global data centers were to rely solely on Chinese power [12]. - In contrast, the U.S. has an installed capacity of about 1,300 GW, with electricity generation only half that of China, and a lower redundancy level compared to China [14]. Group 3: Future Electricity Demand - The U.S. electricity consumption has stagnated over the past 20 years, with industrial electricity demand declining, leading to a projected increase in electricity prices due to rising AI power consumption [15][17]. - By 2030, AI electricity demand in the U.S. is expected to reach 10% of total consumption, potentially rising to 800-1,000 TWh by 2035, which could account for nearly 20% of total electricity use [17]. - The U.S. faces a structural electricity supply issue, with a significant risk of power shortages by 2027 if new capacity is not added [22]. Group 4: China's Electricity Advantage - China's electricity development strategy has resulted in a robust and redundant power supply system, with a projected total generation of 15 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2035, significantly outpacing the U.S. [25]. - The electrification rate in China is expected to reach 35% by 2030, surpassing the OECD average by 8 percentage points [25]. - In contrast, the U.S. is experiencing rising electricity prices, with residential and industrial rates higher than in China, indicating a shift away from historically low prices [28]. Group 5: U.S. Electricity Market Challenges - The U.S. electricity market is characterized by regional disparities and a lack of cohesive infrastructure, complicating the resolution of electricity supply issues [19][30]. - Proposed solutions include allowing large tech companies to build localized power grids, but this approach does not address the underlying generation and grid issues [28]. - The U.S. is exploring options such as gas turbines and nuclear power to meet future electricity demands, but these solutions face significant implementation challenges [30].