PCE数据虽“迟”但符合预期！美联储下周按兵不动几成定局

Core Viewpoint - The latest inflation data indicates that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index met expectations, but the delayed release due to a record-long government shutdown may lead policymakers to place less emphasis on this data when considering future interest rate decisions [6][8]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The core PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year in November, while the overall PCE also increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [6]. - The delayed release of these figures means they reflect conditions from several months ago, which may reduce their relevance for current policy decisions [8]. Group 2: Consumer Spending - Consumer spending in the U.S. showed steady growth in November, with inflation-adjusted spending increasing by 0.3% for the second consecutive month, indicating resilience among consumers despite concerns about the labor market and living costs [8]. - The increase in personal income has continued to support consumer spending, contributing positively to the economy in the fourth quarter [8]. Group 3: Economic Growth - The U.S. GDP for the third quarter was revised up to 4.4%, marking the highest growth rate in two years, driven by robust personal consumption [9]. - The economic analysis bureau noted that the longest government shutdown in history distorted some data, but the overall trend of moderate price increases in November remains evident [9].