【招银研究|政策】政策协同发力，着力扩大内需——2026年1月20日财政新闻发布会点评

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses six fiscal and financial support policies aimed at stimulating private investment and promoting consumer spending, utilizing tools such as fiscal interest subsidies, financing guarantees, and risk-sharing mechanisms to lower financing costs for enterprises and reduce the consumption burden on residents [1][2]. Policy Content: Three Additions and Three Optimizations - Three new policies include: - Implementation of interest subsidy policy for loans to small and micro enterprises, with a 1.5% annualized subsidy for fixed asset loans, capped at 50 million per entity, focusing on key industries such as new energy vehicles and pharmaceuticals [2]. - Establishment of a special guarantee plan for private investment, with a total amount of 500 billion over two years, supporting loans for equipment purchases and business upgrades, including mid-sized enterprises for the first time [2]. - Creation of a risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, providing credit enhancement support and loss compensation for bond issuances [3]. - Three optimized policies include: - Expansion of the equipment update loan interest subsidy policy to include more sectors and extend the support period, maintaining a 1.5% subsidy [4]. - Extension of the service industry loan interest subsidy policy until December 31, 2026, increasing the loan cap from 1 million to 10 million [4]. - Optimization of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, extending the support period and including credit card installment payments, with a 1% subsidy rate [4]. Policy Effectiveness: Expanding Demand and Credit Expansion - The fiscal interest subsidies are expected to significantly increase in scale from 60-90 billion in 2025 to 1,000-1,300 billion in 2026, with specific allocations for small and micro enterprises, equipment updates, service industry loans, and personal consumption loans [6][8]. - The combination of fiscal interest subsidies and fiscal subsidies is anticipated to effectively stimulate investment and consumption, with a notable impact on sectors like equipment upgrades and durable consumer goods [7][8]. Credit Impact: Demand Release and Differentiated Effects - The policy is expected to improve financing willingness and release credit demand, with differing effects between enterprises and residents [9]. - For enterprises, the policy is projected to significantly boost medium and long-term loans, with estimated savings of 1.75% in financing costs due to combined interest subsidies and structural policy rate cuts [10]. - For residents, despite the expanded support for non-housing consumption loans, conservative financial behavior may limit the effectiveness of the policy, leading to a focus on refinancing existing high-interest loans rather than increasing new loans [10].