光大证券研究·2026-01-24 00:04Group 1 - The current phase of the A-share bull market may have broken through the second consolidation phase and entered the third upward phase, with a potential peak forming in the range of 4200-4300 points, followed by a pullback and stabilization at the upper edge of the second consolidation phase [5] - Key points to monitor include the pressure release and capital reception in the 4200-4300 point range, as well as the effectiveness of support at the upper edge of the second consolidation phase and signals of stabilization in core sectors [5] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury yield curve in 2025 exhibited a "steepening" characteristic, with short-term yields significantly declining due to interest rate cuts, while long-term yields remained volatile at high levels due to economic outlook expectations and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [5] - For 2026, the trend of U.S. Treasury yields is expected to continue the "steepening" pattern, with clearer interest rate cut paths potentially driving further declines in short-term yields, while uncertainties regarding tariffs and expectations of U.S. fiscal sustainability may cause long-term yields to remain high and fluctuate or rise slightly [5][6]