【固收】如何看待近期DR001的上行？——2026年1月23日利率债观察（张旭）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that there is no immediate need for concern regarding the recent rise in DR001, as it is still operating near the policy interest rate level, specifically at an average of 1.35% for the second half of 2025, which is below the 1.4% 7D OMO rate [4][5] - The statement "guiding overnight rates to operate near the policy interest rate" does not equate to having the average overnight rate equal to the policy rate, indicating that the current level of DR001 is acceptable [4][5] - Recent increases in DR001, reaching 1.42% on January 22, 2026, are not alarming as this value is only at the 86th percentile since the second half of 2025 and reflects a return to normal levels rather than an extreme rise [6][7] Group 2 - The average values of DR001 from July to January show that December was relatively low at 1.29%, and the recent rise is merely a correction towards normal levels, with averages in other months around 1.37% [7] - The article emphasizes that if DR001's deviation from the policy rate is limited over a period, it indicates a "surrounding model," suggesting that short-term fluctuations should not be over-interpreted in terms of monetary policy stance [7]