每周推荐 | 2026年美国通胀风险有多大？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation risks in the United States for 2026, focusing on the impact of tariffs and other economic factors on inflation trends [2][3][7]. Group 1: Tariff Effects on Inflation - Tariffs have a measurable effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S., estimated to increase it by approximately 0.65 percentage points. However, the transmission of tariffs is not instantaneous but rather gradual, influenced by the tariff rate path [2]. - The effective tax rate increase due to tariffs has limited room for growth, with a potential increase of only 2 percentage points after excluding country-specific factors [2]. - By September 2025, exporters, importers, and consumers are expected to bear the tariff costs in proportions of 6%, 37%, and 57%, respectively. Since Q4 2025, the momentum for businesses to pass on tariff costs has strengthened [2]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook for 2026 - The inflation trend in 2026 is anticipated to exhibit a "high first, low later" characteristic, with upward risks primarily from cyclical factors and metal inflation, while downward risks are linked to productivity and tariff decisions under the IEEPA [3]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely tied to inflation risks, and if it continues to rely on data-driven approaches, inflation risks may remain manageable [3]. Group 3: Economic Consensus and Divergence - A survey of 74 institutions reveals differing views on the U.S. economic growth rate for 2026, highlighting areas of consensus and disagreement among major institutions [5][9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of fiscal and financial coordination to stimulate domestic demand, suggesting that enhancing support for technological innovation and private investment will be key areas of focus in future policies [11].