未来A股还会有熊市吗?|投资小知识
银行螺丝钉·2026-01-24 13:53

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market is inherently cyclical, oscillating between bull and bear markets, similar to a pendulum, and will not remain in either state indefinitely [3][4]. - There are three significant cycles that impact the market: the liquidity cycle, the fundamental cycle, and the sentiment cycle [4]. - The liquidity cycle refers to the availability of money in the market, influenced by fluctuations in interest and exchange rates, typically operating on a small cycle of 3-5 years [5]. - The fundamental cycle pertains to the growth rate of corporate earnings, where faster year-on-year growth in earnings is conducive to the emergence of a bull market [6][8]. - The sentiment cycle reflects investor emotions, where optimism peaks during market upswings and pessimism during downturns, indicating that market sentiment is cyclical [9]. - When one or two of these cycles are at their peaks or troughs simultaneously, it can lead to the occurrence of bull or bear markets, emphasizing the perpetual nature of these cycles [9]. Group 2 - Savvy investors can capitalize on these cycles by buying during downturns and selling during upswings, effectively leveraging market opportunities [10].