每周推荐 | 2026年美国通胀风险有多大？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation risks in the United States for 2026, focusing on the effects of tariffs and the potential for "re-inflation" [2][3][7]. Group 1: Tariff Effects on Inflation - Tariffs have a measurable impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with an estimated increase of approximately 0.65 percentage points [2]. - The transmission of tariffs to inflation is not instantaneous but follows a stepwise pattern, with a potential effective tax rate increase of only 2 percentage points after excluding country-specific factors [2]. - By September 2025, exporters, importers, and consumers are expected to bear 6%, 37%, and 57% of the tariff costs, respectively, indicating a growing momentum for businesses to pass on these costs to consumers [2]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook for 2026 - The inflation trend in 2026 is anticipated to exhibit a "high first, low later" characteristic, with upward risks primarily from cycles and metal inflation, while downward risks are linked to productivity and tariff decisions [3]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely tied to inflation risks, and if it maintains a data-dependent approach, inflation risks may remain manageable [3]. Group 3: Economic Consensus and Divergence - A survey of 74 institutions reveals differing views on the U.S. economic growth rate for 2026, highlighting areas of consensus and disagreement among major institutions [5][9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of fiscal and financial coordination to stimulate domestic demand and support economic growth [11].