特朗普总是TACO的背后是什么？世界还会好吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), highlighting how former President Trump's negotiation tactics often involve extreme threats followed by retreats, impacting global trade dynamics and U.S. foreign policy [4][10]. Group 1: TACO's Origins and Impact - TACO began with the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, 2025, where a 10% baseline tariff was imposed on all trade partners, escalating to higher rates for countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S. [10][12]. - The tariffs on Chinese goods peaked at 145%, leading to a significant drop in U.S. imports from China by over 40% in May 2025, indicating a temporary decoupling of U.S.-China trade [12][14]. - The average tariff rate on Chinese goods reached approximately 29.3% by November 2025, with exemptions for essential consumer goods [14]. Group 2: TACO's Predictable Cycle - Trump's TACO strategy follows a predictable cycle: extreme pressure, market panic, asset price reactions, tactical retreats, and then claiming victory [15]. - Each TACO instance serves not only as a negotiation tactic but also as a means to divert attention from domestic issues, such as the Epstein documents scandal [15][16]. Group 3: Global Reactions and Consequences - The article emphasizes that TACO has weakened the credibility of U.S. negotiations, with global markets becoming desensitized to Trump's tactics, potentially leading to more aggressive policies if left unchecked [18][20]. - European leaders express concern over their reliance on the U.S., facing a critical juncture where they must either unite or risk fragmentation under U.S. pressure [20][22]. Group 4: Future Implications of TACO - The article suggests that Trump's unpredictable nature complicates international relations, as his administration's tactics could lead to significant geopolitical shifts [22][25]. - The TACO approach reflects a broader "America First" strategy, where even allies are subjected to pressure, raising concerns about the future of U.S. foreign policy and international cooperation [25][26]. Group 5: Economic Strategies and Market Dynamics - As the 2026 midterm elections approach, Trump's administration is expected to aggressively manipulate energy prices to secure political support, aiming to lower gasoline prices significantly [27][28]. - The potential for oil price manipulation could lead to volatility in global markets, particularly affecting relationships with key allies like Saudi Arabia [31].