热点思考 | 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？——“大财政”系列之二（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the U.S. financial markets, characterized by a simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, while highlighting the underlying issues of debt expansion and geopolitical risks that remain unresolved despite temporary market stabilization following Trump's statements at the Davos Forum [2][7]. Group 1: Market Turmoil and Immediate Responses - On January 20, a "triple kill" in the U.S. markets occurred, with significant sell-offs in U.S., European, and Japanese bonds, leading to a drop in risk assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold [3][8]. - Key triggers for this market turmoil included concerns over U.S.-European trade disputes, a Danish pension fund's exit from U.S. debt investments, and rising fiscal risks in Japan [3][13]. - Trump's remarks at the Davos Forum on January 21 helped to temporarily ease market fears by ruling out military action regarding Greenland and announcing a framework agreement with Europe [19][3]. Group 2: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to continue rising, with the 2026 deficit rate expected to reach 6.8%, driven by increased defense spending and immigration-related expenditures [4][66]. - Political motivations for fiscal tightening have weakened, with both parties showing a consensus on fiscal expansion, which may lead to a sustained increase in the deficit regardless of electoral outcomes [26][66]. - Geopolitical risks and tariff concerns are likely to persist, with Trump potentially using alternative tariff measures even if existing ones are deemed illegal [37][66]. Group 3: Structural Financial Measures - To mitigate debt risks, Trump may implement "structural" financial repression measures aimed at lowering real interest rates, although expectations for the Federal Reserve to adopt Yield Curve Control (YCC) are not advisable [5][67]. - The article emphasizes that developed countries with sovereign currencies have a lower likelihood of actual default, as their central banks can issue currency as needed [43][67]. - Proposed measures to address debt concerns include government involvement in interest rate guidance, expanding liquidity tools, and adjusting the structure of debt issuance to reduce long-term impacts [49][67].