2026年宏观经济展望——全球经济再平衡｜宏观经济

Economic Outlook - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes a recovery in prices and a stable GDP growth rate of around 5% for 2026, aligning with expectations. Inflation indicators are expected to gradually improve, leading to better corporate profits and household incomes. Overall, a trend of oscillating recovery is anticipated, with a key turning point expected in the second to third quarter when the comprehensive price level is projected to turn positive from negative [1][8]. GDP and Economic Growth - In 2025, China's GDP is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5%, with a similar outlook for 2026. Notably, the relationship between nominal GDP and real GDP is changing, with both showing a gradual recovery. A significant turning point is anticipated in the second to third quarter, where nominal GDP is expected to surpass real GDP, indicating a positive growth in overall inflation indicators [3]. Consumer Market - The "trade-in" policy for consumer goods has played a crucial role in supporting consumption. In 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods are projected to grow by approximately 3.7%, with categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as communication equipment and home appliances, showing rapid growth. The policy's effects are expected to continue into 2026, with an expansion of coverage to include smart products and AI glasses [4]. Manufacturing Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining a stable proportion of manufacturing in the economy. China's manufacturing sector is leading among major industrial countries, with improvements in quality and efficiency reflected in rising labor productivity. Emerging industries, including AI, big data, and biomedicine, are expected to drive future growth [4]. Real Estate Market - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the focus in the real estate sector will be on inventory reduction. Although the inventory of unsold commercial housing has decreased, there remains a need for further de-stocking. Various policy tools have been prepared to support this, including central bank loans for affordable housing and special bonds for inventory reduction [5]. Infrastructure Investment - Debt reduction is crucial for infrastructure investment. The article categorizes provinces into "debt reduction" and "economic powerhouse" regions, noting that investment growth has been higher in economic powerhouse provinces. As debt reduction efforts progress, investment space in relevant provinces is expected to be released. New policy financial tools introduced recently are anticipated to positively impact infrastructure investment [6]. Export Performance - China's export growth has been unexpectedly strong, with a projected 5% increase in 2025 and a trade surplus of approximately $1 trillion. The resilience in exports is attributed to diversification and structural upgrades in the industry. The share of exports to the U.S. has decreased from nearly 20% to 11%, while exports to ASEAN countries have risen to 17% [7]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 is described as very proactive, with a deficit rate of about 4% and an increase in special bond quotas. For 2026, fiscal policy is expected to remain expansive, focusing on structural optimization and potentially easing local financing restrictions [12]. Capital Market Trends - The domestic A-share market has shown an upward trend, particularly in the technology sector. The global capital markets have also experienced varying degrees of growth, with emerging markets performing notably well. The article suggests that these trends are likely to continue into 2026, driven by a weak dollar environment [14]. Currency and Gold Market - Since November 2025, the RMB has strengthened significantly, supported by a large trade surplus and increased demand for the currency. The article anticipates a continued moderate appreciation of the RMB in 2026. Additionally, gold prices have been rising, reflecting both its monetary and credit attributes, suggesting that gold will maintain its investment value in 2026 [15][16].