【广发宏观王丹】需求端补短板，驱动力再优化：2026年中观环境展望

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of China's assets in 2025, highlighting a 27.6% increase in the Wind All A Index, with significant gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and defense industries, driven by global narratives and high-end manufacturing [1][12][13]. Group 1: Asset Performance and Industry Analysis - In 2025, the Wind All A Index rose by 27.6%, with leading sectors including non-ferrous metals (94.7%), electronics (47.9%), and defense (34.3%) [1][13]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises showed a positive trend, particularly in high-end manufacturing and related raw materials, with notable profit growth in non-ferrous metals (32.3%) and computer communication electronics (15.0%) [1][14]. - The performance of various industries was influenced by global trends, with precious metals and the AI industry chain showing remarkable results [1][12]. Group 2: Demand Drivers and Economic Structure - The demand side in 2025 was driven by three main factors: consumer spending on durable goods (e.g., home appliances), exports of electromechanical and high-tech products, and investment in equipment [2][16]. - Exports of electromechanical products and high-tech goods grew by 8.4% and 7.5%, respectively, outpacing overall export growth of 5.5% [2][18]. - Investment in construction and infrastructure declined by 8.4%, while equipment investment increased by 11.8% due to policy incentives [2][16]. Group 3: Industrial Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.6% in 2025, with traditional raw material sectors contributing significantly to this decline [3][20]. - The PPI decline was primarily driven by upstream traditional industries, which accounted for 66% of the decrease, while emerging manufacturing sectors contributed 23% [3][21]. - In the second half of 2025, PPI showed signs of recovery, with month-on-month increases observed in several industries, including coal and non-ferrous metals [3][22]. Group 4: Inventory Dynamics - The inventory-to-sales ratio in the industrial sector rose to 0.58 by November 2025, indicating a trend of increasing inventory levels [4][24]. - The inventory cycle showed a pattern of active replenishment at the beginning of the year, followed by passive accumulation later in the year [4][25]. - By November 2025, nominal and actual inventory levels had increased by 4.6% and 6.8%, respectively, compared to the previous year [4][24]. Group 5: Policy Outlook for 2026 - The core policy focus for 2026 is to address demand shortfalls, with an emphasis on optimizing supply-demand relationships [5][27]. - If fixed asset investment recovers to around 3.8%, the economic supply-demand ratio is expected to improve significantly [5][28]. - The 2026 policy aims to enhance consumer spending and investment, particularly in the service sector, to stimulate economic growth [5][35]. Group 6: Export and Consumption Trends - The export environment in 2026 is expected to remain stable, with structural highlights in midstream manufacturing [6][30]. - The IMF projects a global economic growth of 3.1% for 2026, with emerging economies in Asia and Africa leading the growth [6][31]. - Policies aimed at increasing consumer spending, particularly in the service sector, are anticipated to drive economic recovery [6][35]. Group 7: Investment Recovery and Infrastructure - Investment in infrastructure is projected to recover in 2026, with significant funding allocated for various projects [8][39]. - The early 2026 investment outlook is positive, with a notable increase in the scale of funding for key projects compared to 2025 [8][38]. - Central enterprises are expected to play a crucial role in driving investment, with substantial planned expenditures in infrastructure [8][39]. Group 8: Emerging Industries and Technological Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of emerging industries, including artificial intelligence and quantum technology [9][40]. - Significant growth was observed in sectors such as drone technology and satellite communications, indicating a robust expansion of new industries [9][40]. - The application of advanced technologies in industrial enterprises has increased dramatically, reflecting a shift towards more innovative practices [9][40].