【策略周报】行稳致远，市场节奏如何把握？

Key Points Summary Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, reaching 1401879 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% at constant prices. In Q4, GDP was 387911 billion yuan, growing 4.5% year-on-year. December's industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment declined by 3.8% for the year. Retail sales in December grew by 0.9% year-on-year [2][4]. Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance indicated that the fiscal deficit, total debt, and expenditure levels will be maintained at necessary levels in 2026, ensuring that overall expenditure will "only increase" and key areas will be "strengthened" [2]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year is 3.0% and for five years or more is 3.5%, remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months since June 2025 [2]. Market Trends - The bond market has seen a collective recovery as funds shift from the stock market seeking stability. The issuance of local government bonds has started smoothly, and the results of the 7-year treasury bond auction were favorable, leading to a decline in interest rates and boosting market sentiment [6]. - The A-share market has shown overall growth, supported by proactive fiscal policies and the emergence of incremental policies, while geopolitical uncertainties have driven funds towards RMB assets [7].