法国制造业PMI升至近四年新高——海外周报第124期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting the mixed signals in economic activity, employment, and financial conditions [1]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has rebounded, with the final Q3 GDP growth rate at 4.4% [11][13]. - Japan's December export growth was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% compared to an expected 6.1% [11][14]. - The Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has improved, and the manufacturing PMI has also increased, with France's manufacturing PMI reaching a nearly four-year high of 51 [11][14]. Group 2: US Economic Activity - The US WEI index fell to 2.34% for the week ending January 17, down from 2.40% the previous week [4][16]. - The German WAI index rose to 0.06% for the week ending January 18, up from -0.03% [5][16]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate has marginally decreased to 5.5% for the week ending January 16, down from 5.7% [6][18]. - The US mortgage loan rate increased to 6.09% as of January 22, up from 6.06% the previous week, while the MBA market composite index rose to 397.2, a 14.1% increase from the previous week [6][23]. Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices have rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 312.24, a 3.4% increase from the previous week [7]. - The US gasoline retail price rose to $2.70 per gallon on January 19, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [40]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly job additions have decreased, with a four-week cumulative total of 46,000 jobs as of December 6, down from 70,000 the previous week [8][27]. - Initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 for the week ending January 17, up from 199,000 the previous week [29]. - The INDEED job vacancy index fell to a weekly average of 105.3 for the week ending January 9, down from the previous week's average [34]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.812, down from 0.848 the previous week [9][45]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has improved for the yen against the dollar, while it has worsened for the euro against the dollar [9][48]. - The 10-year government bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone has narrowed, with the spread at 132.3 basis points as of January 22, down from 134.6 basis points [10][51].