中金 | 公募四季报回顾：加仓有色/通信，减仓电子/医药

Core Viewpoint - The public fund market shows a mixed performance in Q4 2025, with a decline in stock positions and a rise in A-shares, while Hong Kong stocks continue to decrease. The overall market sentiment is influenced by various factors including US-China relations and concerns over AI valuation bubbles [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In Q4 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.2%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.1% and the STAR Market Index decreased by 10.1% [1]. - The median return of actively managed equity public funds dropped to -1.5%, marking the lowest quarterly return of the year [1]. Group 2: Fund Asset Allocation - The total asset value of public funds rose from 38.1 trillion yuan to 39.5 trillion yuan, with equity assets slightly increasing to over 9 trillion yuan, but the proportion of equity assets decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 22.9% [2]. - Bond assets saw an increase in proportion by 0.6 percentage points to 53.4%, while cash assets also rose by 1.2 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Active Equity Fund Trends - The total value of actively managed equity funds decreased from 3.1 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, with stock assets declining by 0.1 trillion yuan to 2.6 trillion yuan, and the equity position dropping by 1.4 percentage points to 87% [3]. - The A-share allocation in actively managed equity funds increased from 71.7% to 72.3%, although it remains at a relatively low level compared to the past decade [3]. Group 4: Sector Allocation Changes - The concentration of holdings in leading companies decreased, with the top 100 companies' market value share falling from 60.3% to 58.8% [4]. - There was an increase in allocations to sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communications, and non-bank financials, while reductions were seen in electronics and biopharmaceuticals [5]. Group 5: ETF Market Dynamics - The total asset value of public ETFs increased from 6.6 trillion yuan to 7.1 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs accounting for 3.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [7]. - The proportion of stock assets in ETFs decreased from 67.9% to 65% [7]. Group 6: Future Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to show a "long-term" and "steady" trend, supported by multiple factors including industry hotspots, improving profit expectations, and a favorable liquidity environment [8]. - Recommendations for future investments include focusing on sectors with growth potential such as AI technology, overseas demand, and cyclical recovery areas [9].