中金：特朗普想“要”什么？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's policies on the U.S. economy, focusing on three macro objectives: increasing revenue, reducing costs, and encouraging capital repatriation. The analysis highlights the volatility in financial markets due to policy uncertainty and the implications of Trump's tariff strategies on trade deficits and government revenue [6][7][8]. Group 1: Increasing Revenue - Trump's strategy to increase revenue primarily involves imposing tariffs, as raising domestic taxes is politically unfeasible. The tariffs have led to a notable reduction in the trade deficit, with a 24.6% decrease from $5270.6 billion in 2024 to $3973.3 billion in 2025 [8][10]. - The effective tax rate from tariffs is reported at 11.1%, generating $287 billion in tariff revenue for 2025, which supports the funding of the "Great Beautiful" plan. This approach has allowed for fiscal expansion without significantly increasing debt or deficits [10][12]. - The U.S. government deficit decreased from $1.83 trillion in 2024 to $1.76 trillion in 2025, with the deficit rate dropping from 6.4% to 5.8% [24]. Group 2: Reducing Costs - Trump's efforts to reduce costs include pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and implementing non-market measures, such as limiting credit card interest rates and directing government-sponsored enterprises to purchase mortgage-backed securities [30][32]. - Despite these efforts, the effectiveness of these measures has been limited, as U.S. debt interest costs approached $1 trillion, representing 3.1% of GDP, indicating persistent high costs [30][32]. - The article suggests that undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve could lead to market sell-offs and increased bond yields, counteracting Trump's objectives [32]. Group 3: Capital Repatriation - Trump's policies aim to encourage manufacturing and capital repatriation through tax incentives and tariffs, which have led to a significant increase in domestic manufacturing and corporate investments [36][37]. - The share of U.S. manufacturing imports has decreased from 13.3% in March 2025 to 8.0% by October 2025, indicating a positive trend in domestic manufacturing [37]. - Corporate fixed investment rose from 0.9% in December 2024 to 3.9% in September 2025, with S&P 500 capital expenditures increasing from 8.7% to 19.8% in the same period [39][41]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The article notes potential risks associated with Trump's challenge to the existing international order, which could lead to a significant "de-dollarization" trend, impacting foreign direct investment and U.S. Treasury holdings [43][44]. - Although there are concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and the potential for a loss of confidence in U.S. debt, the current situation has not yet resulted in widespread "de-dollarization" [44]. - The article emphasizes the need for close monitoring of developments, particularly regarding the Supreme Court's rulings on Trump's tariff policies and the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair [66].