【基础化工】氨纶景气拐点来临，持续看好化纤板块景气上行——基础化工行业周报（20260119-20260123）（赵乃迪/周家诺/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the spandex industry is at a turning point, with recent price increases indicating a recovery in market conditions after a significant decline in prices from historical highs [4][5]. - Spandex prices have dropped from a peak of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, representing a decline of 72% [4]. - Recent price adjustments by spandex suppliers, with increases of 1,000 yuan/ton, suggest an improvement in supply-demand dynamics within the industry [4]. Group 2 - The spandex production capacity in China is projected to grow from 925,000 tons in 2020 to 1,430,000 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [5]. - The rapid increase in production capacity is expected to occur between 2022 and 2024, with annual growth rates of 10-11%, significantly higher than the average growth rate over the past five years [5]. - By 2026, only 40,000 tons of new capacity is expected to be added, primarily from Huafeng Chemical, indicating a slowdown in capacity growth [5]. Group 3 - The demand for spandex is expected to increase from 720,000 tons in 2020 to 1,060,000 tons by 2025, with a CAGR of 6.7%, demonstrating strong demand resilience [5]. - The elimination of outdated production capacity is anticipated, with 63,000 tons expected to be phased out by 2025 and an additional 54,000 tons from Xiaoxing Chemical by the end of 2026 [5]. - The combination of limited new capacity and the exit of outdated capacity is expected to significantly reduce supply-side pressure, contributing to a favorable outlook for the spandex industry [5]. Group 4 - The "anti-involution" policy is being promoted, which aims to optimize market competition and regulate chaotic business practices, particularly in the petrochemical sector [6][7]. - The petrochemical industry is shifting from merely increasing oil production to focusing on high-value-added transformations, indicating a new phase in policy direction [6]. - The refining and chemical fiber sectors are expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on high-quality development and structural optimization of production capacity [6][7].