EBSCN(SH:601788) 光大证券研究·2026-01-25 23:07Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement despite current demand pressures [2]. Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,340 CNY/ton, up 0.57% from January 16, while LME copper closed at 13,129 USD/ton, up 2.54% [2]. - The TC spot price has reached a new low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate; cable enterprises' operating rates have increased week-on-week, but domestic social inventory continues to grow, which may suppress demand due to rising copper prices [2]. - The supply-demand outlook for 2026 remains tight, with continued optimism for rising copper prices [2]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.9%, while LME copper inventory rose by 16.9% [3]. - As of January 23, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 719,000 tons, up 4.1% from the previous week [3]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 960,000 tons, up 6.2% from January 16; LME copper global inventory was 172,000 tons, up 16.9% [3]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 526 CNY/ton week-on-week [4]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year; global copper concentrate production in November was 1.923 million tons, down 1.9% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [4]. Smelting - The TC spot price reached -50 USD/ton, marking a historical low [5]. - In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [5]. - In December 2025, electrolytic copper imports were 260,000 tons, down 4.0% month-on-month and 29.8% year-on-year; exports were 96,000 tons, down 32.7% month-on-month but up 473.4% year-on-year [5]. Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with cable enterprises' operating rate at 58.71%, up 2.72 percentage points week-on-week [6]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to see production changes of +11%, -11.4%, and -2.4% from January to March 2026 [6]. - Copper rod production, accounting for about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 52.74%, up 2.56 percentage points month-on-month but down 3.40 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Futures - As of January 23, 2026, the SHFE copper active contract position increased by 6.4% week-on-week, with a total position of 231,000 lots [7]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 53,000 lots, down 1.6% week-on-week [7].