热点思考 | 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？——“大财政”系列之二（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the US financial markets, characterized by a simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, while highlighting the underlying issues of debt expansion and geopolitical risks that remain unresolved despite temporary market stabilization following Trump's statements at the Davos Forum [2][4][7]. Group 1: Market Turmoil and Immediate Responses - On January 20, a "triple kill" occurred in the US markets, with collective sell-offs in US, European, and Japanese bonds, leading to a drop in risk assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold [3][8]. - Key triggers for this market turmoil included concerns over US-EU trade disputes, a Danish pension fund's exit from US debt investments, and rising fiscal risks in Japan [13][19]. - Trump's remarks at the Davos Forum on January 21 helped to temporarily ease market fears by ruling out military action over Greenland and announcing a framework agreement with Europe [19][20]. Group 2: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The US fiscal deficit is projected to continue rising, with the 2026 deficit rate expected to reach 6.8%, driven by increased defense spending and immigration enforcement costs [4][66]. - Political motivations for fiscal tightening have weakened, with both parties showing a consensus on fiscal expansion, which may lead to a sustained increase in the deficit regardless of electoral outcomes [26][66]. - Geopolitical risks and tariff concerns are likely to persist, with Trump potentially using alternative tariff measures even if existing ones are deemed illegal [37][66]. Group 3: Structural Financial Measures - To mitigate debt risks, Trump may implement "structural" financial repression measures aimed at lowering real interest rates, as the current pace of fiscal consolidation is insufficient to alleviate market concerns [5][49]. - The article suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to employ quantitative easing (QE) or yield curve control (YCC) to lower US bond yields under normal conditions, as these measures are typically reserved for extreme crises [55][67]. - The potential for a debt crisis is viewed as low for developed countries with sovereign currencies, where risks manifest more as currency depreciation and rising inflation expectations rather than outright defaults [43][67].