观点集锦｜2026居民端财富管理新趋势——国泰海通非银&银行&地产1月专题论坛

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate industry is entering a new phase of quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a focus on risk prevention, quality improvement, and transformation [4] - The short-term development sector will continue to see policy easing to address supply-demand mismatches, supported by credit [4] - The emphasis will be on upgrading housing quality and establishing standards for new constructions, while ensuring the safety of the entire lifecycle of housing [4] Group 2: Banking Sector Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, primarily affecting 2-3 year fixed deposits, while 1-year deposits remain stable [6] - Credit growth is expected to remain similar to 2025, with a slight decline in growth rate, primarily focused on corporate lending [6] - Net interest income growth is anticipated to improve due to a significant narrowing of interest margins, with most large banks experiencing a decline of less than 10 basis points [6] Group 3: Non-Bank Financial Sector Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector are centered around three main themes: wealth management related to financial technology and brokerage firms, valuation recovery in the insurance sector due to stable interest rates, and the expansion of digital RMB [9] - The retail business is expected to have a competitive advantage, benefiting from the entry of resident funds into the market in a low-interest-rate environment [9] - The digital RMB is supported by national development initiatives, which will drive upgrades in banking systems and payment terminals, increasing service fees in the banking IT and third-party payment sectors [9]