【申万宏源策略】周度研究成果（20260119 - 20260125)

Market Overview - The spring market is progressing along a predetermined path, with a basis for a perfect spring market performance and a broadening profit effect. However, the overall profit effect is nearing a high point, limiting future time and space for growth [5][6]. - The spring market is positioned as an extension of the high-level technological structural market in 2025, with a likely adjustment phase following its conclusion. This phase will focus on waiting for clearer industrial trends and performance digestion [5][6]. Industry Comparison - As of January 23, 2026, the A-share market valuation shows the following: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.7x, PB at 1.9x, at historical percentiles of 83% and 52% respectively - CSI 500 PE at 38.9x, PB at 2.7x, at historical percentiles of 71% and 63% respectively - The ChiNext Index PE at 43x, PB at 5.8x, at historical percentiles of 42% and 68% respectively [9][10]. - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include real estate, automation equipment, and semiconductor electronics, while industries below the 15th percentile include aquaculture and white goods [9][10]. Asset Allocation - Since 2000, the RMB has experienced six rounds of appreciation and four rounds of depreciation, influenced by currency reforms and global trade cycles. During RMB appreciation, stocks have shown a higher stability in performance compared to bonds and commodities [12][13]. Thematic Investment - The Hefei Nuclear Fusion Conference set a target for 2030 power generation, highlighting advancements in quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen energy, and brain-computer interfaces [14][15]. - In Q4 2025, active equity funds increased allocations to technology manufacturing and cyclical sectors, while reducing exposure to real estate and certain segments of the TMT sector [15][16]. Global Economic Insights - The 2026 Davos Forum highlighted key speeches from global leaders, focusing on economic recovery and international cooperation [17]. - Recent increases in long-term interest rates in developed countries have led to global market fluctuations, with implications for risk assets and investment strategies [18][19]. Gold Market Analysis - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions. Short-term market sentiment may fluctuate based on these events [20][22].