PPI“失去十五年”之谜︱重阳荐文

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown zero growth over the past 15 years, despite a significant GDP increase of 250% during the same period, indicating a persistent weakness in PPI and underlying demand issues [1][5]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Historical Context - The PPI has been in a declining trend since October 2021, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% reported for December 2025, marking 39 consecutive months of decline [1][5]. - Historical data shows that from March 2012 to August 2016, PPI experienced negative growth for 54 months, and from July 2019 to January 2021, there were 18 months of negative growth [1][5]. - The PPI index, set at 100 in December 2010, remained at 100 by December 2025, indicating no overall price increase in 15 years [1][5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing PPI - The PPI's long-term decline is attributed to an oversupply in production capacity, particularly after China's entry into the WTO, which led to a significant drop in export dependence [12][13]. - The fluctuation in PPI is primarily influenced by the prices of production materials, which have shown a cumulative increase of zero over the past 15 years, while living material prices have increased by 4.4% [8][11]. - The prices of living materials peaked at 108.4% in November 2022 before declining, likely due to the end of pandemic-related restrictions [9]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The weak demand in the downstream market, particularly after the real estate sector peaked in 2021, has hindered the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream sectors [41][42]. - The relationship between real estate investment and PPI is evident, with a significant drop in real estate investment correlating with the decline in PPI [36][38]. - The overall demand for consumer goods has been on a downward trend, with industrial value-added growth outpacing terminal demand growth since 2020, indicating a supply surplus [31][33]. Group 4: Recommendations for Economic Adjustment - To promote a moderate recovery in price levels, it is essential to adjust the supply-demand relationship, particularly by expanding effective demand [42]. - The focus should be on increasing the income of middle and low-income groups to stimulate consumption, while stabilizing the real estate market to alleviate oversupply issues [52]. - The government should optimize fiscal spending structures to enhance direct transfers to residents, thereby increasing disposable income and consumption [52].