研报 | 受CPU、存储器价格同步上涨压力，预估1Q26笔电出货量将季减14.8%

Core Insights - The article highlights significant pressures on global laptop brands due to rising component costs, particularly in memory and CPU, leading to a forecasted decline in laptop shipments for 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - From the second half of 2025, laptop brands are facing substantial increases in memory prices, with a forecasted 14.8% quarter-over-quarter decline in global laptop shipments in Q1 2026 [2][3]. - The overall laptop shipment forecast for 2026 has been revised down from a 5.4% decline to a 9.4% decline due to supply chain bottlenecks and unclear brand strategies [9]. Group 2: Component Cost Analysis - Key components such as DRAM and SSD are expected to see contract prices increase by over 80% and 70% respectively in Q1 2026, significantly impacting overall laptop production costs [6]. - The cost of PCBs is rising due to increased design complexity and soaring copper prices, contributing to a structural trend of higher costs in laptop manufacturing [6][7]. Group 3: Supply Chain Challenges - The supply of CPUs is expected to remain constrained, with Intel's price increases and supply gaps likely to persist until at least March 2026, adding further pressure on laptop brands [2][3]. - Despite the supply risks, brands maintain an optimistic outlook for Q1 2026 shipments, although they may struggle to secure all necessary materials on time [7].