【招银研究】地缘风险加剧，A股结构慢牛——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.01.26-01.30）

Group 1: Global Macro Strategy - The geopolitical tensions are escalating, with the probability of U.S. military strikes against Iran reaching 62% in Q1 [2] - U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded to 4.2-4.3%, with a reasonable expectation of less than two rate cuts this year [2] - The U.S. dollar is under pressure due to de-dollarization trends and interventions in the yen, but the U.S. economy shows resilience, supporting a long-term view of the dollar [2] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate moderately, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials and stable demand for currency exchange [3] - Gold prices are anticipated to continue rising, potentially challenging $5,500, driven by ongoing Fed rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts [3] Group 3: Domestic Macro Strategy - In terms of domestic demand, housing transaction prices are performing better than volumes, with a 38.6% year-on-year decline in new home transactions [5] - Export performance remains resilient, with container throughput increasing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating strong demand for machinery and automotive products [7] - The government is advancing the construction of a unified national market, with new regulations aimed at reducing "involution" in government procurement [8] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with 10Y Treasury yields projected to range between 1.8% and 1.95% [9] - Recent liquidity conditions are favorable, with the central bank indicating room for rate cuts, suggesting potential opportunities in the bond market [9] Group 5: Equity Market Performance - The A-share market saw a 0.83% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, with a structural slow bull market driven by improving fundamentals and AI trends [10] - The Hong Kong stock market underperformed compared to A-shares, influenced by geopolitical tensions and lower liquidity [10]