当前市场过热了吗？十大指标来测温！

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance since the beginning of 2026, with significant trading volume and a continuous rise in the index, despite recent outflows from broad-based ETFs [3][50]. Group 1: Valuation Perspective - The risk premium for the Wind All A Index is currently at 2.45%, indicating that the market has not yet reached a peak signal, as it is still below the +1 standard deviation level [7]. - The latest PE-TTM for the Wind All A Index is 23.28, approaching the +2 standard deviation level of 23.45, suggesting that future market growth may rely more on fundamental factors [10]. - Major indices like the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext Index have PE-TTM percentiles below 50%, indicating that they are not overvalued compared to historical highs [11]. Group 2: Trading Perspective - The trading volume reached a peak of 3.98 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026, indicating high market enthusiasm, although it has slightly decreased since then [13][14]. - The turnover rate has increased from around 1% to approximately 3%, reflecting a higher trading activity compared to previous bull markets [15]. - The trading congestion index has shown a slight decline, suggesting that while trading is concentrated in certain sectors, it has not reached extreme levels [18]. Group 3: Funding Perspective - The household deposit market value ratio indicates potential for incremental funds to flow into the stock market, supporting the ongoing bullish trend [29]. - The non-bank household deposit growth rate has shown a positive trend, suggesting that there is still room for incremental funds to enter the market [33]. - The total margin balance has increased, indicating a higher risk appetite among investors, although it remains below the peak levels seen in 2015 [38][40]. Group 4: External Capital Perspective - The northbound capital's trading proportion is currently at 11.85%, which is lower than the highs seen in previous bull markets, indicating potential for future inflows [45][48]. - The net outflow from broad-based ETFs in January 2026 does not necessarily indicate a market reversal, as similar patterns were observed in previous bullish environments [40].