国泰海通｜电新：告别过剩思想，拥抱锂电材料大周期

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "anti-involution" is leading to a potential nonlinear growth in profitability for leading lithium battery material companies, despite recent performance challenges and high debt ratios in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The global sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to reach 23.54 million units by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.1%, with China accounting for 70.3% of this market [2]. - The global energy storage battery shipments are expected to reach 640 GWh in 2025, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 82.9% [2]. - The demand for lithium batteries is improving the supply-demand balance, leading to a price increase in lithium materials such as hexafluorophosphate lithium and lithium carbonate since September [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Trends - In 2026, policies such as the continuation of the vehicle trade agreement between China and Europe and the resumption of electric vehicle purchase subsidies in Germany are expected to further enhance demand [4]. - The domestic new energy storage bidding scale has exceeded 400 GWh from January to November 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 75% [4]. - The lithium battery industry is currently in a traditional off-season for end-user demand, but a resonance between demand and inventory cycles is anticipated as the peak season approaches [4].