【公用事业】25年市场化交易电量同比+7.4%，寒潮导致全国用电负荷持续创新高——公用事业行业周报（20260125）（殷中枢/宋黎超）

Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 2.27%, ranking 15th among 31 SW primary sectors; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.11% [4] - Sub-sectors showed varied performance: thermal power up by 2.71%, hydropower down by 0.89%, photovoltaic power up by 7.21%, wind power up by 2.82%, comprehensive energy services up by 4.56%, and gas up by 7.21% [4] Price Trends - Domestic and imported thermal coal prices declined; domestic Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal fell by 13 CNY/ton to below 700 CNY/ton, while imported coal in Guangzhou decreased by 10 CNY/ton [5] - The average clearing price for spot coal in Shanxi surged due to cold weather, while monthly proxy purchase electricity costs are on the rise due to increased capacity electricity prices and the entry of new energy mechanisms into the settlement cycle [5] Key Events - In 2025, the cumulative national electricity market transaction volume reached 66,394 billion kWh, a 7.4% year-on-year increase, accounting for 64.0% of total electricity consumption, up by 1.3 percentage points [6] - The national peak electricity load exceeded 1.4 billion kW for the first time in winter, reaching 1.417 billion kW, driven by a cold wave [6] - Companies released 2025 performance forecasts; Qianyuan Power expects a net profit of 567-633 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 160%-190%, while Guangdong Power A anticipates a net profit of 577-757 million CNY, a decline of 21.45%-40.12% [6] Industry Insights - Annual long-term contract bidding results are being disclosed, with expectations of significant profit increases for national thermal power operators due to lower thermal coal prices [7] - Electricity pricing remains a critical factor; capacity prices are expected to rise in 2026, but the impact on thermal power profitability may weaken due to electricity volume and pricing dynamics [7] - The green electricity sector is entering the settlement phase of the "136 Document," with adjustments in new green electricity installations based on regional supply and demand, although overall price trends are expected to decline [7][8] Future Outlook - The power supply and demand outlook for 2026 is expected to remain loose, continuing the trend from 2025, with ongoing pressure on sector prices [8] - Despite challenges, there is still demand for thermal power installations supported by green electricity growth, suggesting that investment returns in both thermal and green electricity should align with overall investment return levels [8]