国泰海通｜策略：增量政策聚焦城市更新与新兴科技

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in trading heat for hot themes, with commercial aerospace, resource products, and building materials leading the market. The focus of incremental policies is on expanding domestic demand and fostering new technological momentum, particularly in urban renewal, commercial aerospace, domestic computing power, and new power grids [1]. Group 1: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is expected to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand, with 60,015 urban renewal projects planned nationwide in 2024, involving a total investment of 2.9 trillion yuan. Key components include the renovation of old residential areas, urban villages, and underground pipeline upgrades [2]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - Elon Musk predicts that space will become the most cost-effective location for deploying AI data centers within 2-3 years, with the potential for launch costs to drop by 100 times if the Starship achieves full reusability. China aims to establish a leading space computing center by 2030, addressing high energy consumption and carbon emissions from ground data centers [3]. Group 3: Domestic Computing Power - TSMC's capital expenditure is expected to exceed expectations, boosting demand in the semiconductor advanced manufacturing sector. The company anticipates a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit by Q4 2025, with capital expenditures potentially reaching $56 billion in 2026, a 37% increase from 2025 [4]. Group 4: New Power Grid - The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on the construction of a new power system. The share of non-fossil energy consumption is projected to reach 20% by 2025 and 25% by 2030 [5].