中金2026年展望 | 公用事业：宽松降价周期淘沙见金

Core Viewpoint - The market is shifting towards growth styles and thematic investment opportunities as it enters 2026, with public utility sectors experiencing reduced attention due to weak fundamentals and style transitions. However, long-term funds still have a demand for high-yield allocations, and there are trading opportunities in regional stocks [1]. Group 1: Investment Themes - Theme 1: Profitability and Cash Flow Gradually Released, Stable Industry Landscape - The waste-to-energy sector has successfully transformed operations, focusing on improving existing assets and enhancing efficiency, leading to improved cash flow and dividend capabilities [4]. - In the nuclear power sector, the release of electricity price risks in South China is expected to stabilize profitability, with a steady contribution of profit increments as new units are put into operation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][21]. - Theme 2: Continued Demand for High Dividend Yields, Focus on Strong Payment Capabilities - With ongoing interest rate cuts abroad and a low domestic interest rate environment, long-term funds are still seeking stable growth and attractive dividend yields, particularly in thermal power, waste-to-energy, and Hong Kong public utilities [4][23]. - Theme 3: Growth Directions in the New Energy System - The transition to a new power system continues, focusing on green electricity consumption and application, with accelerated grid construction promoting high-quality industry development. The sector is expected to recover from its fundamental low point, with a focus on leading companies in wind power and energy storage [5][24]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The overall power supply is expected to remain relatively loose as significant power generation capacity is added, with a projected total installed capacity of approximately 3,840 GW by the end of 2025, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [9]. - The electricity consumption elasticity coefficient is showing signs of weakening, with the growth in electricity demand primarily driven by the tertiary sector and residential contributions, while the secondary sector's growth lags behind industrial value-added growth [6][7]. - The electricity price trend indicates a downward pressure, with expected reductions in most provinces, particularly in South China and East China, where the price decline may reach 3 cents per kilowatt-hour [12][13]. Group 3: Regulatory and Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions, with targets set to lower energy intensity by 13.5% and carbon emissions intensity by 18% [7]. - The market mechanism for electricity pricing is being optimized, with a shift towards a more market-driven approach, including the cancellation of administrative pricing mechanisms and the acceleration of spot market development [17][42]. - The focus on green energy applications and the establishment of supportive policies for energy storage and renewable energy consumption is expected to enhance the stability and reliability of power supply [15][52].